Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-15 10:38Industry Overview - The laser radar industry is expected to benefit from the trend of "intelligent driving equality" and significant cost reductions, with an estimated global deployment of approximately 3.2 million vehicle-mounted laser radars by 2025, doubling year-on-year [1] - The industry is characterized by a significant Matthew effect, indicating a stable market structure with limited potential for major changes [2][4] Short-term Trends - The trend of intelligent driving is gradually being realized, with strong industry certainty. The cost of laser radars has significantly decreased, entering the price range of 1,000 RMB, which accelerates penetration into vehicles priced below 150,000 RMB [2] - In the first half of 2025, the delivery of passenger car laser radars in mainland China is expected to reach 1.044 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 83.14% [2] - The delivery volume of Hesai's ADAS products in Q1 2025 is projected to be 146,087 units, up 178.5% year-on-year [2] Long-term Opportunities - Future focus should be on the rollout of regulations for L3 conditional autonomous driving, with Beijing already implementing such regulations in April 2023, likely leading to more local governments following suit [3] - The robot market is anticipated to be a larger incremental market, with laser radars successfully penetrating consumer-grade robots and expected to expand into more categories [3] - Optimistically, human-shaped robot shipments could exceed 10 million units by 2035, with simultaneous increases in laser radar installations [3] Technological Developments - The industry is facing market competition and cost pressures, with a focus on chip design and integration to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs [3] - Solid-state laser radars are becoming the mainstream direction due to their higher stability, smaller size, and lower costs, making them suitable for large-scale vehicle applications [3] Market Structure - Chinese companies, including Hesai, RoboSense, TuSimple, and Huawei, dominate the market, holding nearly 95% of the global market share, while foreign companies tend to focus on high-performance and complex solutions but face slower implementation and higher costs [4] - The current high concentration market structure led by Chinese laser radar manufacturers is expected to be maintained in the long term [4] - Hesai Technology (HSAI US) and RoboSense (2498 HK) are covered for the first time with buy ratings, as both companies are expected to release ADAS laser radars suitable for vehicles priced below 200,000 RMB in 2024, priced under 200 USD [4]