Group 1 - European natural gas prices have dropped to near their lowest levels of the year, with the market anticipating a historic summit between US President Trump and Russian President Putin aimed at ending the conflict that has disrupted gas supplies to Europe [1] - The Dutch front-month natural gas futures price fell by 1.4% to €31.70 per megawatt-hour before the summit, with a decline of approximately 10% since the beginning of the month, reaching the lowest level since May [1] - Despite the low prices, the majority of Europe's gas supply now comes from distant countries like the US and Qatar, with less than one-fifth of supply coming from Russia last year, leading to competition for these cargoes with other major buyers in Asia [1] Group 2 - The extent of the lifting of energy sanctions will depend on the scale of the ceasefire led by Putin, the verifiable end of the Ukraine conflict, and credible commitments to rebuild non-occupied Ukrainian territories [4] - Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates that if sanctions are lifted, Russia's total LNG supply could reach 50 million tons by 2030, a 50% increase from 2024 levels [4] - The US has warned Russia of "very severe consequences" if Putin does not agree to a ceasefire, while also pushing for Europe to purchase more LNG from the US, with multiple new projects expected to come online in the coming years [4] Group 3 - If no progress is made in the negotiations, increased US sanctions on Russian oil and gas could lead to price increases [5] - Europe has made steady progress in increasing gas storage injection rates this year, with reserves nearing 73% full [5] - The market is struggling to position itself due to the unpredictability of outcomes from the Trump-Putin meetings [5]
“特普会”前欧洲天然气价格逼近年内新低 市场押注俄乌冲突现转机
智通财经网·2025-08-15 11:08