Pimco警告：特朗普政府出售房利美(FNMA.US)和房地美(FMCC.US)或推高美国房贷利率

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's plan to privatize Fannie Mae (FNMA.US) and Freddie Mac (FMCC.US) may lead to increased mortgage rates for American households, according to Pimco's warning [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Mortgage Rates - Pimco's public policy director, Libby Cantrell, emphasized that without clear government financial support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, investor demand for their mortgage-backed securities could decline, resulting in higher mortgage costs for millions of families [1]. - Citigroup's strategists estimate that if privatization occurs, mortgage rates could rise by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points, potentially costing the average borrower an additional $600 in annual interest payments [1][2]. - The current plan aims to raise approximately $30 billion through the re-listing of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which have been under government conservatorship since the financial crisis [1]. Group 2: Challenges of Privatization - Industry observers note that removing these institutions from government conservatorship presents multiple challenges, and any missteps could undermine market confidence in government support [2]. - Former Freddie Mac CEO David Brickman stated that without clearer guarantees or expanded profit models, it is nearly impossible to avoid raising rates while privatizing [2]. - The $6 trillion mortgage-backed securities market shows some investor confidence in government measures to mitigate potential chaos, including Trump's commitment to maintain "implicit guarantees" for the institutions [2]. Group 3: Risks and Regulatory Concerns - Cantrell highlighted the importance of the 2019 "Uniform Mortgage-Backed Security" rule, which allows for the trading of bonds from both institutions without differentiation, contingent on government guarantees [3]. - Citigroup also pointed out that to attract investors for the IPO, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac might need to increase guarantee fees, which would likely be passed on to mortgage rates [3]. - The government’s specific plans for privatization remain uncertain, and any guarantees would require Congressional legislation, which is currently unlikely due to political gridlock [4]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The former CEO of Freddie Mac, Donald Layton, stressed the need for clear business scope for shareholders post-IPO to avoid past mistakes that led to excessive risk-taking [5]. - Cantrell warned that if market trust in government "implicit guarantees" continues to wane, regulators will need to clarify how to manage the trillions of dollars in agency MBS held on bank balance sheets [5]. - The timeline for privatization may extend beyond months to years, raising questions about whether the potential marginal benefits justify the risks of increased mortgage rates [5].