上半年国内风光新增装机超全年规划，新能源发电如何守住利用率“红线”

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid growth of renewable energy capacity in China, particularly wind and solar power, under the "dual carbon" goals and the transition of renewable energy from supplementary to primary energy source [1][4] - It highlights the challenges of large-scale development and high-level consumption of renewable energy, emphasizing the need for effective management to ensure sustainability [4][5] Group 1: Current Status of Renewable Energy - As of June 2023, China's installed capacity of wind and solar power exceeded 1.6 billion kilowatts, accounting for approximately 45.8% of the total power generation capacity, surpassing the 40.4% share of thermal power [1] - In the first half of 2023, wind and solar power generated 1.1 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing over 23% of the total electricity consumption, indicating that for every four kilowatt-hours consumed, one was generated from wind and solar [1] - The new installed capacity of wind and solar power in the first half of 2023 exceeded 26 million kilowatts, surpassing the annual target of 20 million kilowatts set at the beginning of the year [1] Group 2: Future Projections - During the "15th Five-Year Plan," it is expected that the annual increase in wind and solar power capacity will exceed 20 million kilowatts, with projections indicating that by 2030, the share of wind and solar power in total installed capacity will exceed 50% [2] - The main sources of new wind and solar capacity will include large bases in the northern regions, distributed projects in the central and southern regions, integrated development in the southwest, and offshore wind projects [2] Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - The rapid increase in renewable energy capacity is expected to lead to heightened pressure on consumption and system adjustment costs, with a target for renewable energy utilization rates to remain above 90% from 2025 to 2027 [3] - The report indicates that the utilization rate of renewable energy is likely to decline steadily by 2030, with a concentration of wasted electricity expected in the northern regions and during specific seasons and times of day [4] - Recommendations for addressing these challenges include enhancing the coordination of energy supply, improving cross-regional power transmission capabilities, and developing new models for local consumption of green electricity [4][5]