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美国零售数据连续增长 点燃“金发姑娘”预期 但美联储观望逻辑再强化
智通财经网·2025-08-15 13:57

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the unexpected growth in U.S. retail sales, which has led to increased optimism about the U.S. economy's "Goldilocks" scenario, characterized by moderate growth and low inflation [1][6][7] - The U.S. retail sales data for July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, following a revised strong growth of 0.9% in June, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, indicating robust consumer spending [1][3][5] - Nine out of thirteen retail categories recorded growth, with significant contributions from auto sales and online promotions, particularly from major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target [3][4] Group 2 - The resilience of consumer spending, as indicated by the retail sales data, may influence the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy, with expectations for interest rate cuts diminishing [4][5] - The retail sales report suggests that the "control group" sales, which are crucial for GDP calculations, also experienced a strong month-on-month growth of 0.5%, reflecting a positive trend in consumer spending [5][6] - Despite the positive retail data, challenges such as rising debt levels, the resumption of student loan repayments, and higher tariffs may still pose risks to consumer spending in the future [8]