7月份部分经济指标有所波动，经济平稳运行态势没有改变

Economic Overview - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% and a month-on-month decline of 0.14% [1] - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288,229 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [3][10] - The growth rate of fixed asset investment, excluding real estate development, was 5.3% [10] Consumption Trends - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales in July decreased by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to a slowdown in the sales growth of goods [7] - The sales of goods in July amounted to 34,276 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.0%, which is a 1.3 percentage point decrease from the previous month [7] - The decline in consumption growth was attributed to temporary suspensions of the "old-for-new" policy in some regions and ongoing challenges in the real estate market [8] Investment Insights - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment increased by 6.2%. However, real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 12.0% [10] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, and the sales amount fell by 6.5% [10] - The investment growth rate in the manufacturing sector has been declining since the second quarter, influenced by external environment fluctuations and internal policy changes [11] Future Outlook - The potential for recovery in consumption is anticipated with the reintroduction of the "old-for-new" policy and new subsidies for personal consumption loans [13] - Fixed asset investment is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 6.0% in the second half of the year, supported by the issuance of special bonds for local government projects [14] - Overall, the economic policy is expected to remain stable, focusing on service consumption and risk prevention, with a high probability of achieving a growth target of 5.0% [15]