United (UAL) Up 8.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Core Viewpoint - United Airlines has shown an 8.7% increase in share price since the last earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend leading up to the next earnings release [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, United Airlines reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.87, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $0.01, but reflecting a 6.5% decline year-over-year [2] - Operating revenues reached $15.2 billion, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.4 billion, but showing a 1.7% year-over-year increase [3] - Passenger revenues, which constituted 90.8% of total revenues, increased by 1.1% year-over-year to $13.8 billion, with 46,186 passengers transported, up 4.1% year-over-year [3][4] - Cargo revenues grew by 3.8% year-over-year to $430 million, while revenues from other sources rose by 8.8% year-over-year to $970 million [3][4] Operational Metrics - Airline traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, increased by 4.5%, while capacity, measured in available seat miles, expanded by 5.9%, leading to a consolidated load factor decline of 1.1 points year-over-year to 83.1% [6] - Consolidated passenger revenue per available seat mile decreased by 4.5% year-over-year, and total revenue per available seat mile fell by 4% year-over-year [7] Cost and Expenses - Operating expenses increased by 6.5% year-over-year to $13.9 billion, with consolidated unit cost per available seat mile (excluding certain expenses) rising by 2.2% year-over-year to 12.36 cents [8] Cash Flow and Debt - United Airlines ended Q2 with cash and cash equivalents of $9.35 billion, slightly down from $9.37 billion in the previous quarter, while long-term debt decreased from $24.4 billion to $20.8 billion [9] - The company repurchased $0.2 billion of shares in Q2 2025 and generated $1.13 billion in free cash flow during the quarter [9] Future Outlook - United Airlines anticipates reduced geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty in the second half of 2025, with a projected adjusted EPS for Q3 2025 between $2.25 and $2.75 [10] - For the full year 2025, the company expects adjusted EPS between $9.00 and $11.00, a revision from previous guidance [11] Market Position - United Airlines has a VGM Score of A, indicating strong value, but a lower momentum score of D, suggesting mixed performance in different investment strategies [13] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [14]