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汇率波动下的“小账”与“大账”: 避险需求激增 亟待外汇期货补位“最后一公里”
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-08-15 20:15

Core Viewpoint - The increasing foreign exchange risk and the importance of effective risk management tools for companies engaged in cross-border transactions are highlighted, particularly in the context of rising economic uncertainties and currency fluctuations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Risk Management - The number of domestic listed companies participating in foreign exchange hedging has surged from 143 in 2015 to 1,241 in 2024, representing an approximate eightfold increase [1][6]. - The participation rate in foreign exchange hedging has grown from around 5% to 23.6% over the same period, indicating a significant rise in risk management awareness among companies [6][9]. - The demand for standardized and highly liquid domestic RMB foreign exchange futures is increasing, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of risk management for market participants [1][8]. Group 2: Impact on Companies - BYD has increased its foreign exchange derivative trading quota from the equivalent of $5 billion to $12 billion in 2023, reflecting the growing need for hedging against foreign exchange risks as its overseas business expands [2][3]. - The 2023 flow of China's outward direct investment reached $177.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, underscoring the importance of foreign exchange risk management for companies with substantial overseas assets [3][6]. - Financial institutions, such as QDII funds, are also facing pressure to manage foreign exchange risks, with some maintaining a high hedging ratio of around 90% due to the sensitivity of their returns to currency fluctuations [3][4]. Group 3: Advantages of Foreign Exchange Futures - The introduction of RMB foreign exchange futures is expected to significantly expand the coverage of currency hedging participation among companies, which currently stands at only 23.6% compared to approximately 48% for U.S. listed companies [9][10]. - Foreign exchange futures can lower hedging costs for companies due to their centralized trading and smaller bid-ask spreads, making them more attractive for risk management [10]. - The participation of speculators in the futures market can create favorable conditions for hedging, potentially allowing companies to achieve additional returns while managing risks [10].