The Midstream Energy Play That Keeps Powering Higher

Core Viewpoint - The midstream segment of the petroleum value chain, particularly Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), presents investment opportunities despite challenges faced by upstream and downstream operators in the energy sector [2][4]. Industry Overview - The energy sector has seen a 0.85% loss, making it the second-worst performer among the S&P 500 sectors this year, largely due to poor performances from oil majors [1]. - Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by approximately 600,000 barrels per day in 2025, exacerbated by OPEC output increases, which may keep prices under pressure [2]. - West Texas Intermediate crude is trading at $63.35 per barrel, down 45% from its 2022 peak, while Brent crude is at $66.38, marking a 44% drop from its high [3]. Company Performance - Plains All American Pipeline has a dividend yield of 8.68% and an annual dividend of $1.52 per share, with a payout ratio of 172.73% [6]. - The company reported a 3.12% year-to-date gain, with earnings per share (EPS) of 36 cents, surpassing the consensus estimate of 33 cents [8]. - Quarterly revenue decreased by 16.6% year-over-year, and adjusted free cash flow (FCF) fell by 16% year-over-year, but the long-term growth trajectory remains strong [8][10]. Financial Highlights - Management confirmed full-year guidance of $2.8 billion to $2.9 billion EBITDA, with net income increasing by 129.92% from a loss of $2.58 billion in 2020 to a gain of $772 million in 2024 [9][10]. - Net cash from operating activities rose by 6% year-over-year, from $653 million to $694 million [12]. - The company is exiting its NGL segment in Canada for $3.75 billion, with proceeds expected to support M&A activities [11]. Market Outlook - Analysts have set an average 12-month price target of $20.75 for PAA, indicating a potential upside of 16.18% from the current price, not including the dividend yield [13].