兴业研究：从中国制造到中国研发

Core Viewpoint - China's role in global trade is shifting from a "manufacturer" to a "creator" and "developer," with knowledge-intensive service exports expected to become a new growth point following traditional goods exports [1][3][12]. Group 1: Current Status of Knowledge-Intensive Service Exports - China's knowledge-intensive service export scale still lags behind developed economies like the US, UK, and Germany, indicating significant room for improvement [4][12]. - In 2023, China's service exports reached $381.8 billion, a 74.4% increase since 2015, surpassing the global service trade growth of 57.2% during the same period [4]. - The highest service export sector in China is scientific research, technical services, and other business services, amounting to $104 billion, but still lower than the US, UK, and Germany by $150.1 billion, $126 billion, and $110.6 billion respectively [7][8]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages of Knowledge-Intensive Services - China's technological innovation capabilities are rapidly increasing, transitioning from a scarcity of technical and knowledge factors to a more abundant state [13][30]. - The country has a large pool of high-quality labor, providing a relative cost advantage in developing knowledge-intensive services [19][26]. - In 2024, China is expected to produce 10.59 million university graduates and 1.084 million master's and doctoral graduates, indicating a strong talent supply [20][30]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations for Promoting Knowledge-Intensive Service Exports - Align service trade standards with high-level free trade agreements like CPTPP to enhance international competitiveness [31]. - Improve cross-border data flow regulations to facilitate digital service exports [32]. - Strengthen mutual recognition mechanisms for professional qualifications in service sectors to reduce compliance costs [33]. - Enhance cooperation in digital infrastructure with Belt and Road economies to stimulate service demand [34]. - Establish regional overseas intellectual property protection centers to safeguard companies' intellectual property rights abroad [35].