50基点降息成泡影？“恐怖数据”平稳增长，美联储降息天平转向25基点

Core Viewpoint - The combination of a weak labor market and rising commodity prices introduces uncertainty into monetary policy, with potential implications for consumer spending and Federal Reserve actions [1][6]. Consumer Spending - In July, U.S. retail and food service sales increased by 0.5% month-over-month, reaching $726.1 billion, and rose by 3.9% year-over-year, meeting expectations [2]. - The growth was primarily driven by motor vehicle and parts dealers, which saw a 1.6% increase, aided by consumer urgency to purchase electric vehicles before a tax credit expiration [2]. - Other categories such as furniture and home furnishings grew by 1.4%, while health and personal care products, clothing, and accessories increased by 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively [2]. - Online sales also continued to rise, with a 0.8% increase following a 0.9% rise in June, driven by promotional activities from major retailers [2]. - However, some categories experienced declines, including grocery items (-1.7%), building materials and garden equipment (-1%), and electronics and appliances (-0.5%), indicating consumer sensitivity to pricing [2]. Economic Growth Forecast - Following the retail data release, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model updated its third-quarter real GDP growth estimate to 2.5%, raising the forecast for personal consumption expenditure growth from 2.0% to 2.2% [5]. - This growth rate, while lower than the previous quarter's, remains above the sustainable expansion rate of 1.8% [5]. Tariff Risks - Strong retail sales have alleviated concerns about stagnant economic activity following three months of weak employment data, but the impact of tariffs on prices may soon become evident [6]. - The U.S. import price index rose by 0.4% in July, reversing a 0.1% decline in June, indicating cost pressures from tariffs [6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also reflected this trend, with a 0.9% increase in July, partly driven by rising costs of goods affected by tariffs [6]. Monetary Policy Implications - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September decreased from nearly 100% to 85%, with the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut returning to zero [7]. - The combination of a weak labor market and rising commodity prices may suppress future consumer spending growth, intensifying economic pressures [7]. - The Chicago Fed President described the tariff policy as a "stagflationary shock," which could raise prices while suppressing growth, complicating the Fed's dual mandate of balancing inflation and employment [7].