美联储戴利淡看火热经济数据：仍支持9月行动 今年大约降息两次是合理的

Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, supports the idea of easing monetary policy next month, with a reasonable expectation of two rate cuts this year [1] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in July unexpectedly accelerated, marking the largest increase in three years, with a month-on-month rise of 0.9% and a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, both exceeding market expectations [1] - The rise in PPI indicates that businesses are passing on higher import costs associated with tariffs, suggesting that inflationary pressures are far from over [1] Retail Sales Performance - U.S. retail sales in July exceeded expectations, driven by strong automobile sales and major online promotions, indicating increased consumer spending and boosting optimism about U.S. economic growth [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Daly noted that while the labor market is gradually slowing and the economy is decelerating, it has not yet stalled, and inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, suggesting potential rate cuts later this year [1] - Daly expressed concern about delaying necessary support for the labor market due to fears of persistent inflation, advocating for a balanced approach to monetary policy [1] - However, she opposed the necessity of a 50 basis point cut at the September meeting, indicating that such a move would signal an emergency situation, which she does not believe is warranted given the current labor market conditions [1]