半个月上涨超10%，拐点来了？

Core Viewpoint - The average price of domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen to 55,200 yuan/ton as of August 15, marking an increase of over 10% since the end of July, sparking discussions about a potential turning point in the industry despite being far from the historical peak of 590,000 yuan/ton in 2022 [2] Group 1: Price Dynamics - The recent increase in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices is primarily driven by the rebound in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices, which have surged nearly 40% from below 60,000 yuan/ton to 82,700 yuan/ton [2] - The current nominal monthly production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate stands at 36,600 tons, with an effective monthly capacity of 24,500 tons, and global demand is expected to exceed 24,600 tons starting in September [3] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - The growth in downstream demand, particularly from new energy storage installations, has contributed to the support of lithium hexafluorophosphate prices, with a reported 29% increase in installed capacity compared to the end of 2024 [2] - In July, the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 22,500 tons, while supply was slightly higher at 22,800 tons, indicating a tightening market as demand continues to rise [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for lithium hexafluorophosphate prices to continue to rise slightly, potentially reaching the 60,000 yuan/ton mark in the short term [3] - However, industry insiders caution that the extent of price increases may be limited due to rising raw material costs, which may not significantly improve company profitability [3]