Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2025-08-16 05:39Core Viewpoint - The entry of major automotive battery manufacturers into the small power battery market, particularly for electric two-wheelers, is driven by the need to diversify and utilize excess capacity in a competitive landscape [2][5][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Guoxuan High-Tech's subsidiary Hefei Guoxuan Jitai Mei signed a cooperation agreement to enter the small power battery market, aiming to establish a vertical industrial chain hub [2]. - The electric two-wheeler market is experiencing a significant growth surge, with sales expected to reach 32.3 million units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29.5% [6]. - The new national standard for electric two-wheelers, effective September 2025, will accelerate the replacement of traditional lead-acid batteries with high-quality lithium batteries [7]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Major players like CATL and BYD have already established their presence in the electric two-wheeler battery market, with CATL's battery installation volume reaching 151.72 GWh in the first seven months of 2025, a 34.5% year-on-year increase [3]. - The battery industry is facing declining gross margins due to intensified competition, with CATL's gross margin dropping to 22.41% in the first half of 2025, down 4.49 percentage points from the previous year [3]. - The market for electric two-wheeler batteries is currently dominated by lead-acid battery manufacturers, with a duopoly formed by Tianneng and Chaowei, holding over 70% of the market share [9]. Group 3: Technological and Policy Influences - The lithium battery penetration rate in the electric two-wheeler sector was 22.4% in 2020 but fell to 4.9% in 2023 due to market policy changes and rising lithium prices [6]. - The cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries has decreased to below 0.5 yuan/Wh, making them economically viable compared to lead-acid batteries, presenting an opportunity for automotive battery companies [6]. - Sodium batteries are emerging as a potential alternative in the electric two-wheeler market, with expectations that they could capture 20% to 30% of the market share [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - By 2027, the shipment volume of lithium batteries for electric two-wheelers in China is projected to reach 28 million units, with a penetration rate approaching 40% [8]. - The low-altitude economy is becoming a new market for automotive battery companies, with various applications in flying vehicles and electric ships [10][11].