Ge Long Hui A P P·2025-08-16 08:12Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a rapid response to the "anti-involution" trend, leading to significant price increases and stock performance improvements since early July 2023 [1][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - The express delivery index surged by 17.10% since July, with notable stock price increases: Shentong Express up over 50%, YTO Express up over 30%, and Yunda and Jiacheng International both up over 20% [1]. - Specific stock performance data shows that companies like Jiantong Express and Hengkeda Xin saw price increases of 53.32% and 31.23%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - Starting August 5, 2023, express delivery prices in Guangdong increased by 0.4 yuan per ticket, raising the average price to over 1.4 yuan [3]. - Major express companies have raised their base prices, with Zhongtong and YTO reaching 1.46 yuan and 1.43 yuan, respectively [3]. - The average express ticket price nationwide dropped from 8.14 yuan to 7.52 yuan in the first half of 2023, a year-on-year decline of 7.7% [5]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - Despite the increase in delivery volume, the express delivery industry faces a severe profit squeeze, with net profits per ticket for major companies like Zhongtong and YTO continuing to decline [9][10]. - The industry is experiencing a "growth without profit" phenomenon, leading to a vicious cycle of price competition and operational challenges [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - If the average ticket price increases by 0.1 yuan, major companies could see significant revenue boosts: Zhongtong by 3.4 billion yuan, YTO by 2.66 billion yuan, and others similarly benefiting [12][13]. - The express delivery market is expected to maintain growth, with projections of 1.758 billion packages in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [39]. - The industry may see consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, as evidenced by Shentong's acquisition of Daniao Logistics, which aims to enhance competitiveness [21][43].