失控的美债

Core Points - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, growing at an unprecedented rate and setting a historical record [1][2] - The Peterson Foundation warns that the speed of debt accumulation is faster than ever, with significant implications for future generations [3][4] Debt Growth - The U.S. national debt increased from $36 trillion to $37 trillion in just a few months, with a daily average increase of approximately $22 billion [3] - The debt ceiling was raised by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, allowing for rapid debt accumulation [3][4] Fiscal Challenges - Mandatory spending on Social Security, healthcare, and interest on the national debt has risen dramatically, consuming 73% of total federal spending by 2024 [5][6] - Interest payments on the national debt are projected to reach $1.4 trillion by 2025, accounting for 26.5% of federal revenue [6] Revenue Shortfalls - The "Big and Beautiful" Act is expected to reduce federal tax revenue by approximately $220 billion in the 2025 fiscal year, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [6][7] - Customs revenue has increased significantly due to tariff policies, but this is insufficient to cover the growing fiscal gap [7][8] Monetary Policy Disputes - There is a significant divide within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies, with some members advocating for rate cuts to alleviate debt burdens [9][10] - Recent economic data has heightened expectations for potential interest rate cuts, with a 90.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [12]