美国三大“债主”，增持

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department's TIC report indicates an increase in U.S. Treasury holdings by major foreign creditors, with China increasing its holdings for the first time since March, while Japan and the UK also raised their positions significantly [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Holdings - As of June, China holds $756.4 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, a slight increase of $1 billion from the previous month, continuing a trend of holding below $1 trillion since April 2022 [1]. - Japan's holdings increased by $12.6 billion to $1.1476 trillion, maintaining its position as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt [1]. - The UK saw a substantial increase of $48.7 billion, bringing its total to $858.1 billion, surpassing China to become the second-largest holder of U.S. debt since March [1]. Group 2: Foreign Investment in U.S. Debt - Total foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities reached $9.1277 trillion, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1]. - The report highlights a general trend of increasing foreign investment in U.S. debt, despite fluctuations in individual country holdings [1]. Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yield Trends - Following expectations of interest rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields have been declining, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between 4.3% and 4.45% in July [2]. - The market's response to strong labor market data and renewed tariff tensions initially pushed yields up to 4.5%, but subsequent Fed comments and economic data led to a downward trend [2]. Group 4: U.S. Fiscal Sustainability Concerns - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $37 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability as the government continues to borrow at record levels [2]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that tax and spending policies promoted by the Trump administration could increase the fiscal deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next decade, further exacerbating the debt situation [2]. Group 5: Future Market Volatility Factors - Potential factors that may cause volatility in the U.S. Treasury market include the impact of rising short-term debt post-debt ceiling resolution, uncertainties surrounding tax and fiscal policies, and the increasing sensitivity of non-bank financial institutions to liquidity and risk expectations [3].