美联储！2万亿美债大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential adjustment of its asset portfolio could lead to the purchase of nearly $2 trillion in short-term Treasury bills over the next two years, significantly benefiting the Treasury Department as it issues more short-term debt to cover fiscal deficits [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Asset Management - Bank of America analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve may adjust its investment portfolio to better match its liabilities, thereby reducing interest rate risk and shortening the duration of its liabilities [3]. - The adjustment could create a new source of demand in the short-term market, as the estimated $1 trillion in reinvestments from mortgage-backed securities and maturing long-term Treasuries would align closely with the Treasury's short-term debt issuance [3][4]. - If the Federal Reserve reallocates nearly 50% of its assets to short-term Treasuries, it would better match its short-term liabilities and absorb fluctuations in the Treasury's cash balance [3]. Group 2: Treasury Department's Debt Issuance - The estimated supply of short-term Treasuries is projected to be $825 billion for fiscal year 2026 and $1.067 trillion for fiscal year 2027, assuming the Treasury maintains its long-term bond auction size until October 2026 [3]. - This transition is expected to ensure strong market demand for short-term government debt, alleviating concerns about liquidity issues arising from large-scale Treasury issuance [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Current Operations - Despite currently engaging in balance sheet reduction, recent comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate discussions about asset portfolio adjustments, with meeting minutes expected to be released on August 20 [4]. - The Federal Reserve's net income has been negative due to higher interest payments on reserves compared to income from its bond holdings, creating operational pressure [4]. Group 4: Strategies for Increasing Short-Term Treasury Holdings - The Federal Reserve can quickly increase its short-term Treasury holdings through several methods, including reinvesting maturing mortgage-backed securities, increasing reserve balances, and reinvesting all maturing Treasury coupon payments [5]. - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to conclude its balance sheet reduction by December 2025 and immediately begin adjusting its reinvestment strategy thereafter [6].