Oil News: Crude Oil Holds Bearish Bias Below 200-Day MA, 50-Day Caps Momentum

Market Technicals - Bulls are looking for a breakout above the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, with the 50-day at $65.70 as a key level for confirming momentum shift [1] - A close above $65.70 is necessary to attract new long positions, while failure to hold above $64.06 could lead to increased selling pressure [1] Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming Trump-Putin summit is causing market nerves, with potential ceasefire talks in Ukraine seen as bearish for crude oil prices due to the possibility of eased sanctions on Russian oil [2][3] - The situation remains fluid, with Trump threatening secondary sanctions on countries like India and China, adding to the headline risk [3] Demand Concerns - Weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data has raised concerns about oil demand, despite a nearly 9% year-over-year increase in refinery throughput in July [4] - The month-on-month slowdown in refinery throughput and higher product exports suggest that domestic fuel demand in China may be leveling off [4] Supply Outlook - Bank of America has increased its oil surplus forecast to nearly 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) through mid-2026, citing rising OPEC+ output [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also expressed concerns about a "bloated" market, indicating a bearish supply outlook [5] - The Baker Hughes oil rig count has increased by one to 412, signaling that U.S. supply is not diminishing [5] Price Forecast - With resistance at $64.06 holding firm and no bullish catalysts in sight, the outlook for crude oil is leaning towards the downside [6] - A break below $61.94 could trigger further selling, while prices need to clear $65.70 to avoid being stuck in a consolidation range with downside risks [6]