报喜鸟(002154)：收入下降叠加费用刚性 短期盈利承压

Core Viewpoint - The company's mid-year earnings fell short of market expectations due to declining revenue, rigid expenses, and increased asset impairment, with a significant year-on-year profit drop of 71% in the second quarter [1] Revenue Performance - The revenue decline in the second quarter was similar to the first quarter, but the profit drop was more pronounced, indicating increasing short-term performance pressure from weak retail demand and rising costs [1] - The Haggis brand showed resilient growth with an 8.37% increase despite only two new store openings, largely driven by online sales [1] - The Baoniao brand faced significant pressure, with a 9.6% year-on-year revenue decline and four store closures in the first half of the year [1] - The Baoniao group buying business experienced a 22.53% revenue decline, exceeding previous market estimates [1] - The smaller outdoor brand Lefeiye performed well, maintaining around 20% revenue growth, indicating that outdoor apparel remains a strong segment [1] Expense Trends - Despite a challenging retail environment, the company continued to increase its expenditure for long-term development, leading to expected short-term performance challenges [2] - The acquisition of the American outdoor brand Woolrich resulted in increased expenses and intangible asset amortization, contributing to a rise in sales and management expense ratios by 3.66 and 2.27 percentage points, respectively [2] - While expenses may be slightly controlled in the second half of the year, they are still expected to pose challenges to short-term performance [2] Future Outlook - The company is one of the more mature multi-brand apparel firms in China and is expected to recover growth as consumer demand gradually improves [2] - There is optimism regarding the sustainable growth of the Haggis and Lefeiye brands, as well as positive expectations for the mid-term development of the newly acquired Woolrich brand [2] - The Baoniao brand is undergoing a transformation towards a younger and more fashionable image, which may benefit from a potential consumer recovery [2] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Based on the mid-year report, the company's earnings forecast has been revised downwards, with expected earnings per share of 0.28, 0.34, and 0.41 yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - A target price of 4.20 yuan has been set, based on a 15 times PE valuation for 2025, while maintaining a "buy" rating for the company [3]