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国金证券-昆药集团-600422-集采执行晚于预期,下半年趋势有望向好-250817
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-17 02:32

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.35 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 11.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 198 million yuan, down 26.9% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 150 million yuan, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year [1] - In the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, with a net profit of 108 million yuan, down 23% year-on-year [1] Business Analysis - The execution of centralized procurement is lagging behind expectations, leading to short-term pressure on performance. The implementation of centralized procurement across provinces has been slow, with only Hubei and Jiangxi announcing results since April 30, while most provinces plan to execute between May and July [2] - The retail pharmacy industry is undergoing consolidation, compounded by the company's channel restructuring and team adjustments, which have temporarily affected terminal coverage efficiency, resulting in performance pressure in the first half of 2025 [2] - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, over 20 provinces have announced the execution timeline for national procurement, indicating potential volume growth [2] - The company is actively addressing pressures from medical insurance cost control policies and retail pharmacy terminal consolidation, focusing on enhancing core brand value through the "777" brand strategy and launching new products [2] - Core products are expected to have growth potential, with the company promoting the 777 blood stasis soft capsule and targeting the emotional health market with the liver-soothing granules [2] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Estimates - Due to multiple factors affecting performance in the first half of 2025, the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted from 740 million, 893 million, and 1.072 billion yuan to 627 million, 768 million, and 967 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -3%, +22%, and +26% respectively [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are adjusted to 0.83, 1.01, and 1.27 for the respective years [2]