招商宏观：关税对美国经济的影响几何？

Group 1: Key Features of Trump's Tariff Policy - Trump's tariff policy has three main characteristics: 1) "Threatening" nature with pre-announced tariffs often exceeding market expectations, but actual implementation being relatively moderate 2) Tariffs are implemented in phases, starting with small-scale and limited tariffs before gradually expanding 3) Numerous tariff exemptions and product exclusions slow the average tariff increase, allowing businesses and governments time to adjust [1] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on the U.S. Economy - The overall economic cycle indicates that prior to Trump's presidency, the rising unemployment rate suggested the U.S. was in the mid to late stages of the economic cycle, with tariffs potentially increasing economic downturn risks and unemployment, but the implementation of the American Rescue Plan has improved mid-term economic prospects [2] - Inflation transmission from tariffs has been slow, influenced by multiple tariff exemptions and importers "rushing to import," with three key factors: 1) Exporters absorbing part of the tariff costs 2) U.S. producers absorbing some price increases 3) Declining energy prices offsetting commodity price increases, although these mitigating factors are diminishing [2] Group 3: Production and Manufacturing Impact - Tariffs have positively influenced domestic manufacturing capacity utilization, with production growth not significantly declining despite tariff shocks, driven by a surge in new and unfilled orders [3] - Key industries such as steel, aluminum, and automotive have seen improved production growth and capacity utilization due to rising import costs, although manufacturing employment has been sluggish, primarily due to structural impacts from AI development [3] Group 4: Future Economic Impact of Tariffs - The transmission of tariff increases to the economy will continue to be delayed, with U.S. manufacturing capacity expanding and companies preparing for new tariff shocks [4] - A significant rise in total tariffs is expected post-August, with anticipated economic growth slowing and inflation rising above 3%, as domestic substitution has limited short-term potential and investment from other countries remains uncertain [4] - The absorption of tariff costs by exporters and domestic producers may have reached its limit, constraining future oil price declines, while the potential for a rate cut in September may be impacted by inflation pressures in Q4 [4]