【环球财经】一周前瞻：杰克逊霍尔年会成市场焦点，美股能否稳住涨势

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall inflation data in the US for July showed a moderate increase, leading to heightened expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which contributed to a rise in global risk assets [1][5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6449.80 points, up 0.94% for the week, while the Nasdaq index rose 0.81% to 21622.977 points, both reaching historical highs [1][4] - European stocks also saw gains, with the STOXX 600 index increasing by 1.18% for the week, and major indices in Germany, France, and Italy also posting positive returns [1][4] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - The US retail sales growth slowed in July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, down from 0.9% in June, indicating a weakening consumer spending trend [9] - Core retail sales also showed a decline, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, lower than the previous 0.8%, suggesting a potential downturn in consumer confidence [9] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose slightly above expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures, particularly in core services [8][9] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations are leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 55.2% probability of another cut in October [5][6] - The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference is anticipated to provide insights into future monetary policy, particularly regarding rate cuts [5][10] - Analysts warn that the market's optimism regarding rate cuts may be overly optimistic, given the ongoing strength in core service inflation [8]