美联储降息预期吸引资金回流，但估值风险将影响美股涨势？

Market Overview - Recent market trends indicate that large-cap stocks have regained dominance in the U.S. stock market, driven by expectations of a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, leading to a second consecutive week of gains for major Wall Street indices [1] - Nearly $9 billion flowed back into U.S. stock funds over the past week, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment amid concerns over valuation adjustments [1][6] Economic Indicators - Key economic data released last week focused on inflation and retail sales, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) meeting expectations while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a hotter-than-expected inflation environment, rising 0.9% month-over-month and core inflation increasing to 3.7%, the highest since March [3] - Retail sales grew by 0.5%, but consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan, unexpectedly declined, raising concerns about rising inflation [3] - Initial jobless claims slightly decreased to 224,000, indicating a stable labor market despite signs of stagnation [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September reached 99.9% mid-week, stabilizing around 85% as of the latest updates, indicating strong market pricing for this outcome [4] - Uncertainty surrounding inflation is expected to make some Federal Open Market Committee members cautious about rate cuts, especially in light of mixed economic data [5] Stock Performance - The S&P 500 index has seen strong performance, reaching historical highs, with healthcare, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors leading the gains, particularly following significant investments from notable investors like Warren Buffett [6] - Despite the overall positive market sentiment, concerns about high valuations persist, with 91% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America believing that current valuations are excessive, the highest level since 2001 [7] - The market's recent performance is attributed largely to large-cap stocks, with 61% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages, although only 24% of individual stocks have outperformed the index over the past 60 days, indicating a selective market environment [7]