国金证券：给予铜冠铜箔买入评级

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Tongguan Copper Foil (301217) has exceeded expectations in its performance for the first half of 2025, marking it as a year of profit release for AI copper foil, and maintains a "buy" rating for the stock [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.997 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 35 million yuan, compared to a loss of 59 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.602 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%, and a net profit of 30 million yuan, compared to a loss of 31 million yuan in the same quarter last year [2]. Business Analysis - PCB Copper Foil: The company has a significant advantage in HVLP copper foil, with demand driven by the rapid development of AI globally. The production of high-frequency and high-speed substrate copper foil has surpassed 30% of total PCB copper foil production, with HVLP copper foil production in H1 2025 exceeding the total production for 2024 [3]. - Profitability: In H1 2025, PCB copper foil revenue reached 1.703 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29%, with a gross margin of 5.56%, an increase of 2.77 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Lithium Battery Copper Foil: The company has also seen positive improvements in its lithium battery copper foil segment, with revenue reaching 1.137 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 93%, and a gross margin of 0.24%, an increase of 5.82 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Following the strong Q2 performance, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 146 million yuan, 474 million yuan, and 626 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The current price corresponds to dynamic P/E ratios of 183x, 56x, and 43x for the respective years [4].