可转债退出节奏加快强制赎回成为主流

Core Viewpoint - The pace of convertible bond exits has accelerated significantly, with forced redemptions becoming the mainstream method of exit in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of mid-August 2023, 91 convertible bonds have announced their exit, with 75 of these being early redemptions, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [2][4]. - The number of forced redemptions in July reached 19, marking the second-highest monthly figure since 2021 [2]. - The proportion of convertible bonds exiting through forced redemptions and conversions has shifted from 96% in 2022 to 82% in 2024, while the proportion of maturity redemptions has increased to nearly 20% [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total outstanding amount of convertible bonds as of August 17, 2023, is 646.016 billion, a decrease of 87.606 billion since the beginning of the year [4]. - The supply of convertible bonds is steadily increasing, with approvals for new issues significantly faster than last year, indicating a healthy pipeline for the remainder of the year [4]. - The "fixed income +" funds continue to play a crucial role in the demand for convertible bonds, with significant growth in fund sizes observed [4][5]. Group 3: Short-term Trading Opportunities - The convertible bond market is expected to remain active in the short term, driven by funds, but the sustainability of this trend depends on the stability of the equity market [6]. - The growth of convertible bond ETFs has become a core driver of the market, although there are concerns about potential volatility if the inflow of funds slows down [6]. - Despite the high valuations of some newly issued bonds, the overall market sentiment remains positive, supported by a "slow bull" market and the continued activity of small-cap stocks [6].