降息预期升温 美债长短端利差走阔

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic data weakness and rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the yield curve steepening due to widening term spreads [2][3] Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - U.S. Treasury yields have shown volatility, with the 10-year yield fluctuating from nearly 4.5% in early July to below 4.2% mid-month, and currently oscillating around 4.3% to 4.45% [3] - The 2-year Treasury yield experienced a more pronounced decline, dropping from approximately 3.95% to below 3.7% after the release of disappointing non-farm payroll data [3][4] - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries has widened from below 50 basis points in early July to 58 basis points recently [4] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - The unexpected deterioration in non-farm payroll data has shaken market confidence in a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, prompting a flight to safety into Treasuries and lowering yields [3][4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have intensified, although inflation outlook remains uncertain, influencing Treasury yield movements [2][5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill has raised the U.S. debt ceiling by $5 trillion, leading to increased Treasury issuance to cover budget deficits [7] - Concerns are growing about a potential surge in Treasury supply in Q3, reminiscent of previous supply shocks that drove yields significantly higher [7][8] - Demand for U.S. Treasuries has shown signs of weakness, with recent auctions reflecting lower interest from investors, particularly foreign central banks [8]