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明晟东诚基金:长期行情已开启
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-08-17 23:33

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market rally, which began in September 2024, is expected to last for over four years, with Hong Kong stocks becoming a key breakthrough point and serving as a "value anchor" for Chinese assets [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market has experienced approximately four years of decline from 2021 until the expected bottom in September 2024, with the current year marking the second year of the rally [3]. - Historical data suggests that the upward cycle is often symmetrical with the downward cycle, indicating significant potential for future growth [3]. - Factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and improving economic expectations in China are anticipated to attract both overseas and domestic funds into the stock market [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Focus - Investment opportunities are concentrated in sectors such as military industry, innovative pharmaceuticals, and financial technology, with a flexible use of ETF rotation strategies for timing and allocation [1][5][6]. - The military industry is undergoing significant changes, with increased asset securitization and a shift towards performance-driven investment logic [7]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to replicate the rapid growth seen in the new energy vehicle market, with leading companies potentially increasing their market capitalization significantly [7]. Group 3: ETF Rotation Strategy - The ETF rotation strategy involves three main asset categories: domestic ETFs, cross-border ETFs, and derivative tools, allowing for a diverse range of investment opportunities [6][9]. - The strategy emphasizes strong timing and position management, utilizing a five-dimensional timing model that incorporates macroeconomic, liquidity, sentiment, technical, and overseas indicators [9][10]. - The rotation framework includes macro-driven, thematic, event-driven, and stock selection strategies, each with distinct holding periods and risk management approaches [10].