智通财经网·2025-08-17 23:35Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of AH premium and the stock performance of A-shares and H-shares are showing completely opposite trends, with A-shares outperforming H-shares, yet the AH premium index has reached a new low since 2020 [1][2]. Group 1: AH Premium and Market Trends - The AH premium rate has reached a new low, despite A-share indices showing better performance than H-share indices [1][2]. - Since August, 84% of H-shares have outperformed A-shares, indicating a shift in investment focus towards quality H-share assets by southbound funds and foreign capital [11]. Group 2: Historical Context and Investment Strategies - Historically, from 2014 to 2023, the AH premium rate had a potential bottom of 125%, attributed to the 20% dividend tax on H-shares and the tax exemption for A-shares held for over a year [5]. - Prior to the opening of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, the average AH premium rate from 2006 to 2014 was around 115.8%, which increased after the connect was established [5]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Current Trends - The current AH premium rate bottom of 125% is no longer valid due to three main reasons: increased investment in H-shares by insurance funds, a surge in high-end manufacturing and tech companies listing in Hong Kong, and potential changes in tax regulations suggested by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission [10]. - Insurance funds have made 23 significant investments in H-shares this year, benefiting from tax exemptions on dividends for shares held over 12 months [10]. Group 4: Specific Companies and Performance - Companies such as Ningde Times, 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), and 美的集团 (Midea Group) have shown instances of AH premium rate inversion, indicating a shift in market dynamics [14][16].