旧金山联储主席戴利：预计今年降息两次 反对9月大幅降息

Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, supports the Federal Reserve's plan to ease monetary policy next month, despite recent economic data showing stronger-than-expected retail sales and a significant rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [1] Economic Indicators - In July, the U.S. PPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, marking the largest month-on-month increase in three years, significantly exceeding market expectations [1] - The rise in PPI indicates that businesses are passing on higher import costs related to tariffs to consumers, suggesting potential sustained inflationary pressures, particularly influenced by the Trump administration's tariff policies [1] - July retail sales in the U.S. showed a month-on-month increase, driven by strong automobile sales and major online promotions, reflecting resilient consumer spending and boosting optimism about U.S. economic growth [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Daly believes that two rate cuts within this year are a reasonable expectation, despite the labor market showing signs of slowing and inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's target [1] - She emphasizes the importance of not delaying necessary support for the labor market due to excessive concerns about potential inflation resurgence [1] - Daly opposes a 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming September meeting, expressing concern that such a move would signal an emergency situation, which she does not believe is warranted given the current labor market conditions [1]