国内基本面宽松 棕榈油期货价格或继续承压运行

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures have shown a significant increase in price and trading volume, indicating a bullish trend in the market despite underlying supply and demand challenges [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of August 11, 2025, palm oil futures closed at 9460 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.97% [1] - The trading volume increased by 175,121 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - The weekly trading range was between 8914 yuan/ton and 9536 yuan/ton [1] Import and Cost Analysis - The CNF price for 24-degree palm oil for September-October shipments rose by 30 to 49 USD/ton, reaching 1118 USD/ton and 1105 USD/ton respectively [2] - The landed cost in South China increased by 260 to 430 yuan/ton, amounting to 9580 yuan/ton and 9450 yuan/ton [2] - India's palm oil imports in July were 855,695 tons, down from 955,683 tons in June [2] Supply and Demand Insights - Malaysia is entering a seasonal production increase, with expectations of the highest inventory levels in nearly two years [3] - Domestic consumption in China remains weak, with low port inventories and a declining spot basis [3] - Competition from alternative oils, particularly soybean oil, is exerting downward pressure on palm oil prices [3] Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The market is currently in an overbought condition, suggesting limited short-term upward momentum [3] - If supply continues to increase without a corresponding improvement in demand, palm oil futures may face further downward pressure [3] - The domestic oilseed supply remains stable, with a neutral outlook for palm oil prices in the near term [3]