Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-18 00:01Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests a slightly bullish outlook for the bond market in the short term, indicating a potential phase of recovery after recent declines [1] Short-term Outlook - Historical experience shows that after a significant drop in the bond market, a secondary adjustment typically occurs within about five trading days due to weakened sentiment [1] - Monitored sentiment indicators, such as the speed of changes in bond fund durations and net purchases of long-term bonds by rural commercial banks and insurance companies, have exceeded the threshold for crowded short positions, indicating a possible short-term recovery in the bond market [1] Medium-term Outlook - Following the secondary adjustment, the bond market may experience diminishing marginal impacts on commodity prices and stock markets, potentially entering a phase of narrow fluctuations characterized by chaotic trading logic [1] - A neutral stance with a focus on swing trading is recommended for investors during this period [1] Factors Influencing Future Bond Market Changes - Key factors to watch for future shifts in the bond market include the ongoing US-China trade conflict, as the extension of equal tariffs for another 90 days may alter previous market expectations of a "honeymoon period" between the two countries [1] - With most tariff negotiations between the US and other countries completed, the market's previous assumptions may need to be reassessed, necessitating patience for further observations [1]