Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-08-18 00:09Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a slightly bullish outlook for the bond market in the short term, with historical data suggesting that a second round of adjustments typically occurs around five trading days after a significant drop [1] - The tracked sentiment indicators, including changes in bond fund durations and net purchases of long-term bonds by rural commercial banks and insurance companies, have exceeded the threshold for crowded short positions, suggesting a potential for a phase of recovery in the bond market [1] - In the medium term, after the second round of adjustments, the bond market may experience a dampening effect on the marginal increases in commodity prices and stock markets, leading to a period of narrow fluctuations characterized by chaotic trading logic, with a recommendation to maintain a neutral stance for wave operations [1] Group 2 - Future factors influencing bond market volatility include the US-China trade conflict, with the recent extension of reciprocal tariffs for another 90 days, indicating a potential reversal of the market's previous optimism regarding a "honeymoon period" between the two countries as the US completes tariff negotiations with other nations [1]