美国关税政策重创日本汽车产业，掣肘日本经济复苏

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic data from the Japanese government and Q2 earnings reports from listed companies indicate that Trump's auto tariffs and "reciprocal tariffs" have severely impacted the Japanese automotive industry, hindering Japan's economic recovery [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Japan's exports to the U.S. have seen a continuous decline for three months, with a significant drop in automotive exports due to the increase in U.S. tariffs from 2.5% to 27.5% starting in April [1] - In June, Japan's automotive exports to the U.S. decreased by 26.7% year-on-year, with the Kyushu region experiencing the largest decline, where export volume fell by 67.8% and export value dropped by 76.3% [1] - The automotive sector is crucial to Japan's economy, and the decline in exports will adversely affect related industries and regional economies [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Effects - Mazda and Subaru are the most affected Japanese automakers due to their high reliance on U.S. exports, with Mazda reporting a net loss of 42.1 billion yen in Q2, reversing from a profit of 49.8 billion yen in the same period last year [2] - Toyota, while relying more on local production in the U.S., still faces significant losses due to tariffs, with an expected operating profit reduction of 1.4 trillion yen for the fiscal year, and a projected net profit drop of 44% to 2.66 trillion yen [2] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - Japan's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, translating to an annualized growth rate of 1.0%, but experts warn of potential negative growth in Q3 due to the ongoing impact of U.S. tariffs [2][3] - A survey of economists indicates that six out of ten predict Japan's economy will enter negative growth in Q3, with an expected GDP decline of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year down to 0.7% from an earlier prediction of 1.2%, citing the effects of U.S. tariffs and global economic slowdown [4]