Core Viewpoint - The current market rally, which began in September 2024, is expected to last for over four years, with Hong Kong stocks becoming a key breakthrough point and serving as a "value anchor" for Chinese assets [4][5][6]. Market Outlook - The A-share market has experienced approximately four years of decline since 2021, with a potential bottom reached in September 2024. Historical data suggests that the upcoming upward cycle could mirror the previous downturn [5]. - The market is currently in a phase where many investors have not yet adjusted their expectations, similar to the state of the market in 2013-2014 [5]. - The anticipated influx of overseas capital and a shift in China's economic structure will likely lead to a significant transformation in the asset allocation of Chinese residents, with the stock market becoming a new "reservoir" for funds [5][6]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong market is expected to be a breakthrough point due to its high marketization and regulatory framework, which prevents speculation on low-quality stocks [6]. - There is an expectation of continuous foreign capital inflow into Chinese assets, particularly in the Hong Kong market, which has seen increased support from the government since the "9.24" policy [6]. - The valuation of certain H-shares is already higher than their A-share counterparts, indicating a potential premium for H-shares in the future [6]. Investment Focus Areas - The investment strategy will focus on sectors such as military industry, innovative pharmaceuticals, and financial technology, utilizing an ETF rotation strategy for timing and allocation [4][7]. - The military industry is undergoing significant changes, with increased asset securitization and a shift towards performance-driven investment logic [7]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to replicate the rapid growth seen in the new energy vehicle sector, with leading companies potentially increasing their market capitalization significantly [8]. ETF Rotation Strategy - The ETF rotation strategy involves three main asset categories: domestic ETFs, cross-border ETFs, and derivative tools, allowing for a diverse range of investment opportunities [7]. - The strategy emphasizes strong timing and position management, utilizing a five-dimensional timing model that incorporates macroeconomic, liquidity, sentiment, technical, and overseas indicators [9][10]. - The strategy is designed to adapt to different market styles, focusing on macro-driven, thematic, event-driven, and stock selection sub-strategies, ensuring effective and accurate investment decisions [10].
明晟东诚基金:长期行情已开启 港股有望引领市场
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-08-18 00:26