【机构策略】后续A股市场走势或将延续中期慢牛格局

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to continue a medium-term slow bull pattern, with external conditions showing no significant negative impact and a warming expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Market sentiment indicators suggest localized overheating but not at a significant overall level, maintaining a pattern of "three advances and two retreats" [1] - There are two potential scenarios for market evolution: a slow adjustment and consolidation of the slow bull pattern, or an accelerated peak leading to a significant correction due to overheating or deteriorating trading structure [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is believed to have certain sustainability, influenced by "anti-involution" and demand-side policies that may significantly affect the A-share index [1] - As of June 2025, the M2 to the stock market circulation value ratio has remained above 400% for 23 consecutive months, indicating a potential for a "structural bull market" [1] - The current market is characterized by a strong oscillation, with an increased investment tolerance and opportunities for low absorption rotation in high prosperity sectors [1] Group 3 - The current phase may represent the early stage of a bull market's main rising wave, supported by three key reasons: the turnover rate is still significantly lower than the initial high point of the bull market [2] - The style of the market tends to shift significantly between the early and late stages of a bull market, with small-cap stocks currently dominating, suggesting a potential shift to large-cap stocks in the later stages [2] - Historically, equity financing scales tend to rise rapidly during the main rising wave of a bull market, but current levels remain low compared to previous bull markets [2]