美经济数据反复，金价冲高回落，短期或维持震荡格局

Core Viewpoint - Precious metal prices experienced a pullback after a recent surge, influenced by mixed economic indicators and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [1] Economic Indicators - July CPI and non-farm payroll data showed a slowdown, which initially boosted the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) released on Thursday indicated a rebound in producer inflation, leading to a marginal decline in the likelihood of a September rate cut [1] Market Reactions - As of the latest close, COMEX gold futures fell by 3.14% to $3381.7 per ounce, marking a two-week low [1] - The gold ETF Huaxia (518850) decreased by 1.42%, with net inflows of 64.9 million yuan over the past three days [1] - The gold stock ETF (159562) saw a decline of 0.41% [1] Federal Reserve Expectations - The adjustment in non-farm employment figures has slightly increased expectations for Federal Reserve easing, with the likelihood of a rate cut in September remaining unchanged [1] - The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year has risen to approximately three [1] Market Dynamics - Analysis from Ruida Futures (002961) suggests that the opening of a rate cut window by the Federal Reserve in September is the current market baseline, providing some support for gold prices [1] - Ongoing US-Russia negotiations are intensifying the bullish and bearish dynamics in the precious metals market, with potential outcomes affecting gold price movements [1] - Long-term factors such as the gradual opening of the Federal Reserve's rate cut window, persistent US twin deficits, and declining dollar credibility are expected to provide solid support for gold prices [1] - The short-term outlook remains focused on a range-bound trading pattern [1]