地缘风险降温施压美元 但通胀支撑犹存

Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is influenced by both geopolitical developments and U.S. economic data, with potential fluctuations depending on the outcomes of international negotiations and inflation trends [1] Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - As of August 18, the dollar index is priced at 97.90, with a slight increase of 0.05% from an opening price of 97.80 [1] - The dollar index faced resistance below 98.25 and found support above 97.70, indicating a potential for upward movement after a short-term decline [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Analysts from ING suggest that a breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations could reduce geopolitical risks, potentially putting pressure on the dollar [1] - The dual role of the dollar as a safe-haven and a currency for energy-producing countries makes the current negotiation stalemate favorable for the dollar [1] Group 3: Inflation and Federal Reserve Expectations - Recent U.S. wholesale inflation data exceeded expectations, leading to a market adjustment of Federal Reserve rate cut predictions [1] - If the inflation trend continues, it may provide support for the dollar that could counterbalance any negative impacts from potential ceasefire agreements [1] - The future direction of the dollar will depend on the interplay between geopolitical developments and economic data [1]