降息预期VS通胀现实：杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会或成市场转折点

Group 1 - The upcoming statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium are expected to significantly influence global capital markets [1] - There is a growing gap between the market's strong expectations for a rate cut in September and the complex realities faced by policymakers [2][4] - The S&P 500 index has reached historical highs, driven by investor optimism regarding potential rate cuts, with a 92% probability assigned to a rate cut in the September meeting [2] Group 2 - Recent economic data shows a surprising acceleration in core CPI to 3.1%, primarily driven by service sector inflation, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand services rose by 1.1%, suggesting future inflation risks [3] - Morgan Stanley highlights that service sector inflation, driven by domestic labor costs and rents, is more persistent and challenging to address compared to goods inflation [3] Group 3 - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are becoming more apparent, with differing views on inflation risks among officials, complicating the policy landscape [4] - Powell is expected to counter the prevailing "rate cut certainty" narrative at the Jackson Hole meeting, emphasizing a data-dependent approach [4] Group 4 - Major investment banks are issuing warnings about the risks of a one-sided market bet on rate cuts, with Morgan Stanley suggesting that service sector inflation has been underestimated [5] - The Bank of America strategy team warns that a dovish stance from Powell could trigger profit-taking, while recommending international stocks as a favorable allocation [5] Group 5 - The Jackson Hole meeting is anticipated to be a catalyst for market volatility, with potential outcomes hinging on Powell's tone regarding inflation risks and rate cuts [6] - Long-term, the normalization of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve may face greater challenges due to persistent service sector inflation, reshaping global asset pricing [7]