金价短期承压，机构：通胀数据表现分化，美联储降息幅度预期有所反复

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to mixed economic indicators and geopolitical factors, with a potential for future price increases driven by central bank policies and inflation concerns [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 18, the Gold ETF (159937) saw a slight increase of 0.03% with a trading volume of 134 million yuan, and a net inflow of 55 million yuan over the past five days [1]. - The spot gold price reached $3,343.44 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.24%, while COMEX gold was priced at $3,388.70 per ounce, up 0.17% [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data has led to a decrease in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 15.4% probability of maintaining rates in September and an 84.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3]. - The divergence in U.S. CPI and PPI data has contributed to a mixed outlook for gold, with ongoing support for potential rate cuts in the coming months [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The recent U.S.-Russia summit did not yield any agreements, but there are signs of easing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine situation, which has impacted gold prices [3]. - Despite geopolitical tensions subsiding, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains strong, with central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest a long-term bullish outlook for gold, with short-term weakness expected; key support levels are identified at $3,330 and $3,300, while resistance is seen at $3,350 and $3,400 [4]. - The Gold ETF and related funds offer low-cost, diversified investment opportunities, with a focus on long-term value in the context of inflation and economic uncertainty [5].