三季度后期豆粕现货价格或保持偏强运行态势

Core Viewpoint - The soybean meal market has shifted to a bullish trend driven by favorable USDA report data and strong performance of rapeseed meal, with soybean meal prices rising over 2% on August 13 [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The USDA's August supply and demand report unexpectedly lowered the new season's soybean harvesting area to 80.1 million acres, leading to a decrease in production and ending stocks, tightening the supply-demand relationship for U.S. soybeans [2]. - The average national soybean meal price reached 3,079 CNY/ton on August 13, an increase of 84 CNY/ton from the previous period, with coastal regions seeing prices near 3,000 CNY/ton [2]. Inventory Trends - National soybean meal inventory has shown a decline for two consecutive weeks, indicating a potential peak in inventory levels for the year, with the inventory at 949,000 tons as of the first week of August, down 53,000 tons from its high [4]. - Upstream companies are actively managing production plans to control inventory levels, which may limit soybean meal prices from exceeding the late July peak [4]. Supply and Demand Outlook - Short-term upstream operating levels are expected to remain high due to raw material support, while market demand shows resilience but lacks significant growth potential [6]. - China's soybean imports in July were 11.666 million tons, a historical high for the period, but are expected to decline seasonally as Brazilian shipments slow down [6]. - The tightening procurement window for soybeans is anticipated to lead to increased import costs, which will likely boost confidence among industry players and support a rise in soybean meal prices [6]. Price Projections - The market sentiment is currently bullish due to strong cost support and the performance of substitute products, although there may be slight downward pressure on prices due to cautious downstream behavior and traders locking in profits [8]. - It is expected that soybean meal prices will maintain an upward trend, potentially reaching around 3,100 CNY/ton in coastal regions by early September [8].