【债市观察】A股“慢牛”预期加强 收益率曲线陡峭化上行

Core Viewpoint - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect has intensified, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3700 points, indicating a gradual emergence of a "slow bull" market. Meanwhile, the bond market is under pressure, with significant yield increases observed, particularly in long-term bonds [1]. Market Overview - The bond market experienced a significant decline, with the 10-year government bond yield rising over 5 basis points (BP) to approximately 1.75% during the week of August 11 to August 15, 2025. The 30-year bond yield increased by about 8 BP, while the short end saw limited upward movement due to a loose funding environment [1][2]. - The yield curve has shown a "bear steepening" pattern, indicating a more pronounced increase in long-term yields compared to short-term yields [1]. Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted its language in the second quarter monetary policy report from "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to "ensuring the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy," suggesting a focus on execution rather than further easing in the short term [1][15]. - The market's expectations for broad monetary easing are already low, and if there are no significant policy changes in the third quarter, the anticipated impact on the market is expected to be manageable [1]. Bond Market Performance - The bond futures market saw a comprehensive decline, with the 30-year main contract dropping 1.48%, marking the lowest level since early April. The 10-year and 5-year contracts also fell by 0.29% and 0.15%, respectively [5]. - The China Bond Market saw a total issuance of 50 bonds amounting to 555.69 billion yuan, with government bonds accounting for 310.26 billion yuan of this total [7]. International Market Context - The U.S. Treasury yields rose overall, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.32%, an increase of 4 BP for the week. The 2-year yield remained stable at 3.76%, leading to a widening spread of 56 BP between the two [8]. - Recent U.S. inflation data showed a year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 2.7%, which was below market expectations, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, exceeding predictions and reinforcing market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8][10]. Institutional Perspectives - Financial institutions have noted that the bond market is currently facing adjustment pressures primarily due to the "stock-bond seesaw" effect. Strategies for equity markets should focus on significant trends rather than short-term fluctuations, while bond strategies should consider opportunities arising from market adjustments [16][17].