机构看金市：8月18日

Core Viewpoints - Precious metals, particularly gold, are currently under pressure but the long-term bullish narrative remains intact, with expectations of limited depth in any potential pullback [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Market Analysis - Galaxy Futures notes that the unexpected rise in the US PPI and resilient retail data have dampened market expectations for interest rate cuts, reducing the anticipated cuts from three to two [1] - The recent US retail sales data showed a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, aligning with expectations, which has led to limited volatility in precious metals [2] - The geopolitical developments, including positive signals from US-Russia talks, have suppressed safe-haven demand, leading to continued adjustments in precious metals [1][2] Group 2: Price Projections - Hai Tong Futures indicates that gold's rebound has not sustained, and it is expected to maintain a high-level range-bound fluctuation, with COMEX gold prices projected to stay between $3,200 and $3,600 per ounce in the short term [2] - RJO Futures suggests that if gold does not reach new highs by October or November, it may face downward pressure towards the 200-day moving average, potentially around $2,964 per ounce [4] - Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen believes that despite the recent inflation data, gold prices will hover around $3,350 per ounce within a $200 range, as the market anticipates the balance the Federal Reserve must strike between inflation control and economic support [3]