下游开工仍延续提升状态 尿素有望走出震荡区间

Group 1 - As of August 18, urea futures showed a strong performance with the main contract priced at 1755.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.15% increase [1] - Urea prices in various regions include Shandong at 1680-1710 CNY/ton, Hebei at 1710 CNY/ton, and Xinjiang at 1550 CNY/ton, with a production capacity of 600,000 tons [2] - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 887,600 tons, which is lower than last week's expectations, while port sample inventory is 483,000 tons, higher than last week's expectations [2] Group 2 - Zhongyuan Futures indicates that while production is expected to slightly recover, upstream urea enterprise inventories have accumulated due to slow domestic demand [3] - Wukuang Futures notes that domestic production has shifted from decline to increase, with overall supply remaining relatively loose, but agricultural demand is entering a low season [3] - Current market conditions are weak, but with low enterprise profits and limited downside potential, there may be opportunities for price recovery if positive news emerges [3]