短期PTA产业链利润仍集中于上游PX环节

Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is facing significant production losses due to new capacity coming online, while profits are concentrated in the upstream PX segment, with no planned maintenance for PTA facilities in the short term [1][6]. Group 1: PTA Industry Analysis - As of August 14, the average processing fee for PTA in August is 195 yuan/ton, down 19% from July, marking a 22-month low [1]. - The theoretical production loss for PTA companies is estimated at 305 yuan/ton, based on a processing cost line of 500 yuan/ton [1]. - The main reason for PTA's production losses is the new capacity coming online and the continued supply-demand mismatch in PX, which remains relatively strong [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polyester industry chain's profits are currently concentrated in the upstream PX and downstream polyester filament POY segments [3]. - The theoretical profit for PX is 381 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from July, while polyester filament POY has turned profitable with a theoretical profit of 29 yuan/ton [3]. - Despite the severe losses faced by PTA, the supply pressure is expected to increase with the upcoming new PTA capacities, which may not be offset by any planned maintenance [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The PX supply-demand imbalance is expected to continue, with new PTA capacities potentially increasing PX demand by 34.7 thousand tons/month if they stabilize by October [4]. - Polyester inventory levels are relatively low, with POY at 17 days, FDY at 25 days, short fibers at 12 days, and polyester chips at 7.5 days as of August 14 [4]. - The anticipated demand recovery during the "Golden September and Silver October" period may support profit recovery for polyester products, while PTA continues to face supply pressure from new capacities [6].