预期8月下旬气温转凉美国气价回落，需求恢复缓慢国内气价回落

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates a forecast of cooler temperatures in late August, leading to a decline in U.S. gas prices, while domestic gas prices are also expected to decrease due to slow demand recovery [1][2]. Price Tracking - As of August 15, 2025, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: U.S. HH down 8.9%, European TTF up 0.8%, East Asia JKM down 0.3%, China's LNG ex-factory price down 1.1%, and China's LNG CIF price down 3.5%, resulting in prices of 0.7, 2.8, 3, 2.8, and 2.9 yuan per cubic meter respectively, indicating a slight price inversion between domestic and international gas prices [2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Weather forecasts predict cooler temperatures in late August, contributing to an 8.9% week-on-week decrease in U.S. natural gas market prices. As of August 13, 2025, the average total supply of natural gas increased by 0.2% week-on-week to 1,121 billion cubic feet per day, with a year-on-year increase of 4%. Total demand rose by 5.2% week-on-week to 1,081 billion cubic feet per day, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [3]. - In Europe, gas consumption from January to May 2025 was 2,180 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The average daily gas generation in Europe increased by 33.2% week-on-week to 862.7 GWh as of August 15, 2025 [3]. - Domestic gas prices decreased by 1.1% week-on-week, with apparent consumption from January to June 2025 down 0.2% year-on-year to 2,103 billion cubic meters, attributed to warmer winter conditions affecting heating gas demand [3]. Pricing Progress - From 2022 to July 2025, 64% (187 cities) of cities at the prefecture level and above have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter. The price difference for leading city gas companies is between 0.53 and 0.54 yuan per cubic meter, indicating a 10% potential for price difference recovery [4]. Pipeline Pricing Mechanism - On August 1, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued guidelines to improve the provincial natural gas pipeline transportation pricing mechanism, aiming to reduce costs for downstream users. The allowed return on pipeline assets is set to be lower than the current levels, which is expected to facilitate cost reductions for city gas companies and enhance gas supply [5]. Investment Recommendations - For 2025, the outlook suggests a relaxed supply environment and cost optimization for gas companies. Key recommendations include focusing on companies with U.S. gas sources that can mitigate tariff impacts through resale, and those involved in provincial pipeline operations facing reduced transportation fees. Recommended companies include: - New Hope Energy (dividend yield 5.2%) - China Resources Gas (dividend yield 4.5%) - Kunlun Energy (dividend yield 4.5%) - China Gas (dividend yield 5.9%) - Blue Sky Gas (dividend yield 8.8%) - Fuzhou Energy (dividend yield 3.5%) [6].