Core Viewpoint - Domestic liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices have declined again in August, with the average price for residential gas at 4359 yuan/ton and ether after carbon four at 4533 yuan/ton, indicating a further drop compared to the previous month [1][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, domestic LPG average commodity volume was 53,845 tons/day, a slight increase of 29 tons/day, while average production was 81,048 tons/day, showing a minor increase [4] - The import volume of LPG at main ports was 719,000 tons, with a decrease in both port arrivals and storage [4] - Demand for residential gas is currently low due to seasonal factors and high temperatures, leading to weak consumption in this sector [4] - Chemical demand is also not optimistic, with propane deep processing maintaining stable levels, while butane deep processing is driven by MTBE units [4][5] Market Dynamics - The market sentiment has been negatively impacted by lower CP prices and continuous declines in international crude oil prices [3] - Despite some refineries attempting to stabilize prices due to low supply, the overall market remains under pressure from high inventory levels and weak demand [3][6] - The LPG inventory at refineries has increased to 32.18%, and port inventory has risen to 55.50%, indicating significant accumulation [5][6] Future Outlook - The high inventory situation is expected to persist in the short term, with limited improvement anticipated during the "Golden September" season [6] - The average price forecast for August is 4380 yuan/ton for residential gas, with a range of 4330-4450 yuan/ton, and 4530 yuan/ton for ether after carbon four, with a range of 4450-4560 yuan/ton [6] - The LPG market may continue to face downward pressure due to supply-demand adjustments and cost changes [7]
需求疲软、高库存难解 预计LPG市场下跌态势仍将延续
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-08-18 06:53