供应端收缩预期主导情绪 纸浆盘面尝试低多布局

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The approval of futures and options for various paper products by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) indicates a growing interest in the paper market, particularly in pulp and related commodities [1]. Group 1: Market Developments - The CSRC has approved the registration of futures and options for coated printing paper, fuel oil, asphalt, and pulp at the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1]. - As of August 15, the warehouse futures inventory of pulp was 235,114 tons, a decrease of 39 tons from the previous trading day, while the factory inventory remained stable at 19,240 tons [1]. - By August 14, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports for pulp in China reached 2.099 million tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous period, reflecting a 2.5% rise [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Southwest Futures reports that expectations of supply contraction are driving market sentiment, with major international pulp producers like Suzano and Bracell announcing production cuts or shifts [2]. - External pricing has increased by $20 per ton, providing cost support for the current pulp market, although demand improvements are uncertain [2]. - The transition from the off-peak to peak season in the downstream market is leading paper mills to cautiously pass on cost pressures, but high finished paper inventories and low profit margins are limiting the rebound potential for pulp prices [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - New Lake Futures indicates that while there is clear cost support for pulp prices, the slight increase in inventory this week has reduced pressure compared to earlier periods [3]. - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive, suggesting that pulp prices may maintain a slightly stronger oscillation, although terminal consumption is lagging, limiting the upside potential [3]. - A strategy of low-margin positioning may be advisable given the current market conditions [3].