下游蓄电池消费表现欠佳 铅价短期承压走势

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal sector showed strong performance on August 18, with lead futures experiencing slight fluctuations, closing at 16,775.00 yuan/ton, down 0.30% [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates that the U.S. July unadjusted CPI year-on-year remained stable at 2.7%, while the core CPI rose to a five-month high of 3.1%, leading traders to increase bets on a potential Fed rate cut in September, which is favorable for the non-ferrous sector [1] - Supply-side analysis reveals that the operating rate of primary lead smelters remained strong, while the operating rate of recycled lead slightly decreased but remained relatively low, with no improvement in profits for recycling enterprises, suggesting stable operations going forward [1] Group 2 - Demand-side insights indicate that the operating rate of battery manufacturers is weaker than in previous years, with July lead-acid battery finished product inventory days dropping from 26 to 21.8 days, while dealer inventory days increased from 39.9 to 44.6 days, indicating high levels of finished product inventory and significant pressure on end consumption [1] - Future market trends suggest that primary lead enterprises are generally resuming production, with environmental regulations in Anhui province having a diminishing impact on recycled lead, leading to a relatively loose supply of lead, while downstream battery consumption remains poor, putting short-term pressure on lead prices [1]