全国快递反内卷趋势正在形成 | 投研报告

Group 1: Express Delivery Industry - The State Post Bureau reported that in July 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 16.4 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, while the business revenue was 120.64 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [1][2] - The "old-for-new" policy continues to drive growth in the express delivery market, with companies actively expanding diverse demand scenarios to meet consumer needs for summer appliance deliveries [1][2] - From January to July, the express delivery business volume distribution among eastern, central, and western regions was 71.5%, 19.4%, and 9.1% respectively, indicating a trend of industry expansion towards central and western regions [2] Group 2: Industry Competition and Regulation - The Beijing and Baoji express delivery associations issued a "resist involution" initiative, promoting fair competition and urging companies to enhance core competitiveness and fulfill corporate responsibilities [2][3] - The Jiangsu Provincial Postal Administration announced plans to initiate an "anti-involution" campaign due to severe impacts from price wars, calling for compliance with legal requirements and the elimination of irrational competition [3] Group 3: Company Performance - Milky Way's 2025 semi-annual report showed a 13.12% year-on-year increase in net profit, with significant growth in distribution business driven by new platform expansions [4] - Debon Holdings reported a 11.43% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, but a significant drop in net profit by 84.34%, indicating short-term pressure on performance [5] Group 4: Aviation Industry - The China Air Transport Association released a self-discipline convention aimed at guiding high-quality development in the aviation industry, focusing on safety, service quality, and operational efficiency [6] - Direct flights between China and India are expected to resume after five years, potentially announced around the time of Indian Prime Minister Modi's visit to China [6] Group 5: Shipping and Port Industry - The potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the lifting of oil sanctions could significantly impact the crude oil tanker market, with two possible scenarios affecting supply and demand dynamics [7][8] - Brazil's iron ore exports have seen a notable increase, with July shipments reaching nearly 38 million tons, supporting the bulk shipping market [9] Group 6: Logistics and Transportation - Zhongyuan Expressway reported a 5.77% year-on-year increase in toll revenue for July 2025, with significant contributions from specific highway segments [13] - National logistics operations remained orderly from August 4 to August 10, with increases in both railway and highway freight transport [13]